Backgammon - true probabilities!
Backgammon - true probabilities! |
Backgammon is not a game that you play with left dice and right dice separately, it's a game that you play by the result of two dices. So I consider them like values to play "1 and 2" or "3" which also mean two possibilities, but in a different way. This is important when you consider "5+4" as "5 and 4" or "9"; also double6 as "12" or "18" or "24"! And in my way too, there are 36 possibilities: 6 different doubles, 15 combinations, and 15 sums of 2 dices! So when you are obliged to leave a blot (a single or weak checker) try to avoid positions attainable by 6, then 4, then 5 and 3. And prefer 7 to 8! Check the followings to find out why! Double numbers: 6 Double 1 means 4 times 1; or 1, 2, 3, 4 Double 2 means 4 times 2; or 2, 4, 6, 8 Double 3 means 4 times 3; or 3, 6, 9, 12 Double 4 means 4 times 4; or 4, 8, 12, 16 Double 5 means 4 times 5; or 5, 10, 15, 20 Double 6 means 4 times 6; or 6, 12, 18, 24 Possible combinations: 30 1+2 = 1, 2, or 3 1+3 = 1, 3, or 4 1+4 = 1, 4, or 5 2+3 = 2, 3, or 5 1+5 = 1, 5, or 6 2+4 = 2, 4, or 6 1+6 = 1, 6, or 7 2+5 = 2, 5, or 7 3+4 = 3, 4, or 7 2+6 = 2, 6, or 8 3+5 = 3, 5, or 8 3+6 = 3, 6, or 9 4+5 = 4, 5, or 9 4+6 = 4, 6, or 10 5+6 = 5, 6, or 11 Probability of numbers that you may get in 100 rolls: 1 = 9 times 2 = 10 times 3 = 11 times 4 = 12 times 5 = 11 times 6 = 13 times 7 = 03 times 8 = 04 times 9 = 03 times 10 = 02 times 11 = 01 time 12 = 03 times 15 = 01 time 16 = 01 time 18 = 01 time 20 = 01 time 24 = 01 time Percentage (in 100 rolls): % 10.35 for "1" % 11.49 for "2" % 12.64 for "3" % 13.79 for "4" % 12.64 for "5" % 14.94 for "6" % 03.45 for "7" % 04.60 for "8" % 03.45 for "9" % 02.30 for "10" % 01.15 for "11" % 03.45 for "12" and % 01.15 for "15","16","18","20" and "24" |
